
Today’s news about the housing market doesn’t come the usual “Bear” known as Dr. Housing Bubble, but the New York Times. The news: houses aren’t moving off the market despite claims by the real estate industry that housing is more affordable than ever.
Really? The market sure doesn’t think so.
See, this is what happens when the funny-money and liar-loans of the early 2000’s are no longer legal, and people are actually expected to pay the nut on their mortgage, taxes and insurance. And the fact is, most “average” families making less than $100,000 per year just can’t afford a $400,000 house.
Out in SoCal, the market is still in denial, and 1,200 square foot beaters are still fetching $360,000 or more as people get duped into thinking that they can flip it in two years for a $50,000 profit. What’s worse is that $360K is truly still out of reach for a family making with a grooss income of $75,000 which can really only afford about $250,000 at their limit. So we are adding more bad debt on top of bad debt, as surely a good number of the FHA loans are not going to pan out. And guess who foots the bill when and FHA loan goes belly up. You and me, the American taxpayer.
The market is still somewhat inflated. That’s why prices are still dropping. Without the fake ARM loans, and a silly $8,000 tax credit to fake people into buying houses that they can’t afford, reasonable Americans simply don’t have the flow to make it happen, especially with the massive taxes that many states are slapping on top of the huge federal income taxes.
I’d look for the market to continue to drop or at least languish at current levels for another four to six years. Prices won’t bounce back several years after this current unemployment crisis is averted. And I’m not so sure that mortgage rates are going to go anywhere. The Fed can’t raise rates without causing our economy to go into a tailspin. They have to hold the rates artificially low to keep things from totally tanking.
Now is not a bad time to buy, but the hype about this being the best time to buy doesn’t seem to really carry any validity. In the light of today’s news, I’d say that the bulls of the housing market have a lot of egg on their face.